28 June 2009

din seria 2012

The Doomsday argument does not say that humanity cannot or will not exist indefinitely. It does not put any upper limit on the number of humans that will ever exist, nor provide a date for when humanity will become extinct

An abbreviated form of the argument does make these claims, by confusing probability with certainty. However, the actual DA's conclusion is: there is a 95% chance of extinction within 9120 years.

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The Olduvai theory states that industrial civilisation (as defined by per capita energy consumption) will have a lifetime of less than or equal to 100 years (1930-2030). The theory provides a quantitative basis of the transient-pulse theory of modern civilization.

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